Direct-to-Device IoT Connections Reach 30 Million in 2030
17th July 2025, London, UK: A new report from connectivity specialist research house Kaleido Intelligence has found that satellite direct-to-device IoT connections will reach 30 million in 2030, up from less than half a million at the end of 2025. Direct-to-device (D2D) technology allows commodity cellular hardware to connect to satellite networks using either licenced operator terrestrial spectrum or via NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) chipsets and associated spectrum.
Business Model Innovation Required
The new research, Cellular-Satellite Communications: Opportunities & Outlook 2025, highlighted that today, the market for D2D communications for IoT use cases remains nascent, with Skylo leading within the NTN space. Key use cases for D2D currently focus around low-bandwidth, non-critical applications with asset tracking, energy and utilities (including oil and gas) in addition to agriculture accounting for around 60% of connections today.
Nevertheless, while IoT represents a potentially high addressable market for uptake, with 51% of IoT enterprises and OEMS viewing it as a viable solution for WAN connectivity, economics in terms of airtime pricing pose significant barriers, which will continue to slow market adoption for the foreseeable future.
“In similar fashion to how OEM subsidies for satellite connectivity can drive traction in the smartphone market, the same principles can be applied to IoT”, remarked research author Steffen Sorrell. “Here, margins achieved through consumer data breakage can be leveraged to drive IoT airtime pricing down, and present a more attractive offer for volume.”
Unsustainable Practices Pose a Systemic Risk
Since 2015, satellite payloads launched into orbit have increased by some 1105%, with almost all communications payloads targeting LEO (Low Earth Orbit) altitudes, where latency reduction provides important benefits. Over the coming years, Kaleido expects at least 60,000 satellites to occupy LEO orbit. Nevertheless, analysis by Kaleido highlights a lack of homogenised global legislation surrounding sustainability in space, the increasing politicisation of sovereign constellations in addition to the as-yet untested capabilities of several LEO players to avoid collisions in space and deorbit safely at altitudes over 500km may represent a systemic risk to the industry in terms of reversing the downward trend of launch and maintenance costs for satellite network operators. Here, careful due diligence must be applied in terms of partner selection.
Smartphones Offer a Limited Opportunity
Smartphone D2D connectivity provides an equally interesting are of development for the market, with 6 million users expected by the end of 2025. Nevertheless, inherent device constraints in terms of antenna design and radio power will reduce the scope of use cases for such devices at least until satellite capacity is considerably increased. In tandem with the transient demand for satellite connectivity in this segment, monthly ARPU is unlikely to reach much higher than $6 per month on a global basis by 2030.
About Kaleido Intelligence
Kaleido Intelligence is a specialist consulting and market research firm with a proven track record of delivering telecom research at the highest level. Kaleido Intelligence is the leading research company addressing mobile roaming and connectivity services in its entirety, covering industry-leading market insights, data forecasts, historical viewpoints, competitive intelligence and operator market surveys.
Research is led by expert industry analysts, each with significant experience delivering market research and insights that matter.