Mobile Network Fraud & Security Losses to Fall Over 33% by 2030
23rd October 2025, London, UK: A new report from connectivity specialist researchers Kaleido Intelligence has found that losses from security and fraud attacks on telecoms networks will fall from an estimated $50 billion in 2025 to $33 billion by 2030. This is driven by expected declines in SMS and voice security incidents.
Technology Changes & Regulation Driving Declines
The new report, Mobile Security & Fraud Outlook 2025, has found that this decline in traditional fraud is driven by both increased security measures and shifts in technology away from these channels, particularly at the A2P (app-to-person) level. In the case of increased security, voice firewalls in particular have gained a renewed prominence thanks to the emergence of audio deepfakes, and will contribute to voice fraud losses declining by more than 10% per annum for the remainder of the decade.
The other contributor, particularly in the case of SMS, is regulation. With SMS increasingly viewed as unsafe for 2FA (2-factor authentication), regulators will increasingly mandate alternative methods for this, from instant messaging to flash calling. As a result, we expect annual SMS fraud losses to decline by almost 50% over the forecast period as the channel becomes less commonly used for security purposes.
The shift away from SMS will make one-time passwords and similar authentication methods more secure, resulting in less fraud in both SMS and other channels, as fraudsters come up against new security measures. However, over time we expect vulnerabilities to be found, resulting in an average 2% CAGR across newer forms of fraud.
The Double-Edged Sword of AI
Kaleido’s research shows that AI-powered analytics and network monitoring will reinforce networks against network-level attacks like Denial-of-Service, resulting in a 30% reduction in DoS losses between 2025 and 2030. However, AI will be increasingly used by cybercriminals. In particular, the use of AI will facilitate the creation of synthetic identities, meaning that subscription fraud losses will remain above $10 billion per year until 2030, and comprise the largest single channel for operator losses throughout the forecast period.
“While losses from fraud are declining in absolute terms, the cost of failure is still high, with an average incident costing over $1 million to rectify. Fraud and telecoms security is becoming a more complex endeavour, with new threats like AI-based attacks and quantum hacking in clear view,” remarked research author James Moar. “Network operators and security professionals need to be preparing now to ensure that their networks and data are secure against these new threats.”
About Kaleido Intelligence
Kaleido Intelligence is a specialist consulting and market research firm with a proven track record of delivering telecom research at the highest level. Kaleido Intelligence is the leading research company addressing mobile roaming and connectivity services in its entirety, covering industry-leading market insights, data forecasts, historical viewpoints, competitive intelligence and operator market surveys.
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