The global travel forecast for 2026 went from its strongest outlook in a decade to its most unpredictable. Kaleido’s latest research reveals how eight weeks of conflict cut the 2026 global travel forecast from 6% growth to near-zero.
Record Year, Sudden Reversal
2025 became the first year in history to surpass two billion international trips, with record airline profits and the fullest aircraft ever recorded. The early consensus pointed to a steady 3-4% rise for 2026 and the first genuinely normal post-pandemic year, resting on three quiet assumptions: that geopolitical conflict would not escalate, that the global economy would stay favourable, and that travel-cost inflation would keep easing.
All three broke within months. On 28 February 2026, coordinated US and Israeli air strikes on Iranian targets triggered missile and drone retaliation against Israel, US bases across the Gulf, and the civilian infrastructure of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Within days, Gulf airspace had closed, Kuwait International Airport was temporarily shut, transit-hub capacity fell sharply, jet fuel prices roughly doubled, and consumer confidence weakened across key origin markets at once.
This is the most significant disruption to global travel since the pandemic, transmitted through elevated fares, higher fuel costs and weakened consumer sentiment, materially altering the near-term outlook for both inbound and outbound travel.
Building a Forecast on Shifting Ground
In response to the conflict, Kaleido introduced a geopolitical disruption adjustment layer on top of its existing baseline, which continues to reflect Kaleido’s established view on structural market drivers, airline capacity and travel demand patterns. The layer classifies every country by its exposure across several channels, applied to both inbound arrivals and outbound departures as relevant.
From there, the travel forecast is presented across three scenarios:
- Scenario A, Kaleido’s central case, assumes the conflict resolves towards the end of the first half of 2026, with a phased normalisation of Gulf aviation capacity and a gradual recovery across affected markets.
- Scenario B, a more conservative outlook, applies broader dampening to secondary effects such as fuel-cost inflation and consumer travel confidence, with recovery extending into 2029 and 2030.
- Scenario C, a severe downside case, assumes an extended conflict, prolonged disruption to Gulf aviation and energy flows, sustained fuel-price pressure and a deeper contraction in long-haul demand. Kaleido views this as a low-probability outcome at this stage, and it is not included in the report.
Alongside the conflict layer, the model continues to weigh the slower-moving forces that shape any travel year and feed every international travel trends analysis: leisure and business traveller intentions, shifting post-pandemic travel patterns, the broader recession and economic outlook, and the pull of major events such as the FIFA World Cup 2026 and the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.
Which Travel Trends are Shaping 2026?
The full report unpacks each of these in detail. In short, the international travel trends worth watching are:
- Hub reshuffling. Long-haul traffic rerouted away from the Gulf within days, and new hubs have absorbed the displaced capacity in ways that may or may not fully reverse.
- US redistribution. The United States is now sending travel demand to other destinations rather than receiving it from the world.
- A higher cost floor. New European pre-travel authorisation systems and a coordinated wave of tourist taxes have raised the baseline cost of a trip.
- The unalgorithmic turn. Coolcation, set-jetting and the hunt for less-saturated destinations are redrawing where travellers actually want to go.
How Much Travel Growth is Expected in 2026?
The revised numbers show a clear step down from the pre-conflict baseline. On the inbound side, global tourism arrivals move from the original baseline expectation of 5.5% growth to 3.5% under Scenario A, and to a slight decline of 0.7% under Scenario B.
Global Number of International Inbound Trips (Scenario A) Per Annum in Millions, Market Forecasts 2019-2030
The outbound travel forecast follows the same path, weakening from a 6.0% baseline to 3.5% under Scenario A and a mild contraction of around 0.5% under Scenario B, the latter reflecting prolonged fuel-cost inflation, airline capacity constraints and softer consumer confidence across key source markets. In trip terms, Scenario A still carries global outbound departures to 2.1 billion in 2026.
Global Number of International Outbound Trips (Scenario A) Per Annum in Millions, Market Forecasts 2019-2030
The Map Is Still Being Drawn
The conflict remains active at present and these forecasts are designed to be revised as the picture around aviation, fuel markets and consumer behaviour becomes clearer. Kaleido will continue to monitor the source markets and corridors most exposed to the disruption and issue updates to its travel and tourism market outlook in upcoming editions.
The final outcome may fall between Scenario A and Scenario B, depending on how quickly aviation capacity, fuel markets and traveller confidence stabilise. Kaleido will continue to monitor developments through Q3 2026 and will review and update the forecast if conditions do not improve as expected. As noted earlier, all scenarios are anchored to the same baseline and are designed to be recalibrated as the situation evolves.
These forecasts include all international arrivals and departures, including same-day cross-border trips. As a result, the headline percentage changes may understate the impact on overnight, long-haul and higher-spend travel segments, which are more exposed to aviation disruption, fuel costs, airspace restrictions and traveller confidence effects. When assessed on an overnight or long-haul basis, the decline in affected markets may therefore be more pronounced than the total travel figures suggest.
What is already clear is that travel has become far harder to predict than it was a year ago. Flight routes have rewired, long-standing hubs have lost their advantage, new ones have stepped in, and the cost of a journey has reset to a higher floor. The desire to travel has not dimmed; what has changed is the map it follows, and that map is being redrawn in real time.
Explore the full Global Tourism & Travel Trends, H1 2026 report from Kaleido Intelligence, including the complete scenario-based outbound and inbound travel forecasts to 2030, regional performance analysis, and corridor-level data.
Blog Author: Neelashree Mukherjee (Principal Analyst)