Cellular LPWAN Connections
to Exceed 2 Billion by 2028
9th October 2025, London, UK: New research from connectivity research specialists Kaleido Intelligence has found that cellular LPWAN (NB-IoT and LTE-M) connections will almost double between 2025 and 2030. The market is projected to surpass 2 billion connections in 2028 and reach 2.4 billion by 2030.
Roaming Troubles Make LPWAN a Domestic & Private Sector
The new research, NB-IoT & LTE-M: Outlook & Opportunities 2025, forecasts that over 2 billion of these connections will remain domestic in 2030, reflecting slow progress on roaming agreements, despite Kaleido survey results showing strong interest from MNOs in developing them.
LTE-M’s ability to use 4G LTE roaming and network infrastructure where LTE-M is unavailable enhances its appeal for international MVNOs, with Kaleido anticipating 37% of LTE-M connections to be roaming in 2030, compared to just 11% of NB-IoT. Outside China, LTE-M will comprise over 60% of cellular LPWAN connections.
The scale required for public LPWAN is making private cellular networks an attractive option. However, this puts it into direct competition with LoRaWAN and other unlicensed technologies, which also often operate on private networks.
New Monetisation Models Needed
Part of the slow progress on LPWAN agreements has been the low level of monetisation of the connections, with data monetisation remaining low because of the low levels of data LPWAN typically has. This is particularly the case for NB-IoT, where we expect monthly ARPU to fall to $0.07 by 2030. As a result, wholesale connectivity providers are looking to alternative models for LPWAN monetisation, with a majority expecting monthly access charges to predominate in the future.
“Access charges provide MNOs with a floor for LPWAN revenue, making its value more dependable,” remarked research author James Moar. “However, this will need to be balanced against the ROI for enterprises, who need to see value in the data and connectivity provided. With thin margins and tolerance on both sides, this is a hard equation to balance.”
RedCap and eRedCap Set to Challenge LPWAN as 5G Matures
The research found that other forms of cellular connectivity will continue to compete with LPWAN as 5G develops, particularly RedCap and the forthcoming eRedCap (enhanced Reduced Capabilities). However, these are more likely to replace LTE Cat 1 and others, thanks to higher data rates.
Different implementations of RedCap and eRedCap will require careful handling to avoid the same network feature and capability confusion that has hampered cellular LPWAN deployments.
About Kaleido Intelligence
Kaleido Intelligence is a specialist consulting and market research firm with a proven track record of delivering telecom research at the highest level. Kaleido Intelligence is the leading research company addressing mobile roaming and connectivity services in its entirety, covering industry-leading market insights, data forecasts, historical viewpoints, competitive intelligence and operator market surveys.
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