LPWAN CONNECTIVITY REVENUE TO REACH $2.5 BILLION IN 2028
Revenue to grow at 14% CAGR between 2024 and 2028, with domestic deployments dominating
08th August 2024, London, UK: New research from roaming and connectivity experts Kaleido Intelligence has forecast that connectivity revenue for LPWAN (NB-IoT and LTE-M) deployments will reach $2.5 billion in 2028. Revenue growth will register a CAGR of 14% between 2024 and the final forecast year.
Only 13% of Networks Worldwide Support Inbound LPWAN Roaming
The research report, NB-IoT & LTE-M Outlook & Opportunities 2024 highlighted that the market for LPWAN continues to see significant challenges. Crucially, roaming agreements continue to be underdeveloped, which hamper opportunities for wider adoption.
Kaleido’s research found that only 13% of networks worldwide support inbound LPWAN roaming, with non-European regions in particular lagging behind. As a result, by 2028, only 16% of total LPWAN connections will be deployed under roaming scenarios.
Kaleido’s Research Lead Steffen Sorrell commented: “LPWAN roaming availability and wholesale monetisation is most acutely felt among the IoT MVNO community, and in part has led to some of the conversation being shifted to LTE Cat 1 bis. Factors such as 5G Standalone, 2G and 3G shutdowns as well as Non-Terrestrial Networks will help drive the market forward, however.”
Network Shutdowns to Aid Market Traction
Between 2024 and 2030, some 188 2G and 3G networks are currently planned to be shut down by operators worldwide. This means that customers currently using legacy network RAT (Radio Access Technology) will seek modern alternatives, which in many cases will likely be LTE-M or NB-IoT. Meanwhile, traditional module fallback solutions in the form of 2G and 3G will no longer be available. These factors will inevitably provide market impetus, with LPWAN connections set to grow at a CAGR of 46% between 2024 and 2028, in markets outside of China.
Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap Cloud the Market
The present state of LPWAN network support has allowed promotion of technologies such as LTE Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap to gather pace. Notably, only Release 18 will see RedCap become similar in scope to LTE Cat 1, while 5G Core availability and 5G Standalone roaming agreements are several years from maturity. In the short-medium term, Cat 1 bis offers a reasonable alternative to LPWAN, particularly for roaming connectivity.
Nevertheless, service provider expertise will be critical to steer customers towards the optimal solution for their requirements, given the clouded state of cellular technologies available today.
About Kaleido Intelligence
Kaleido Intelligence is a specialist consulting and market research firm with a proven track record of delivering telecom research at the highest level. Kaleido Intelligence is the leading research company addressing mobile roaming and connectivity services in its entirety, covering industry-leading market insights, data forecasts, historical viewpoints, competitive intelligence and operator market surveys.
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