The latest Connectivity Data Hub update

LTE-M Connections to Reach 500 Million in 2028

Network Sunsets, Roaming and the Commercialisation of the eSIM IoT Specification to Serve as Adoption Drivers

London, 13th February 2024 – New research from roaming and connectivity experts Kaleido Intelligence has forecast that total active LTE-M connections will reach over 500 million in 2028, representing growth of 43% CAGR between 2023 and 2028.

Growth in LPWAN (NB-IoT and LTE-M) connectivity has not reached its potential in markets outside of China to date: during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for 2G/3G technology remained resilient, while a lack of dedicated roaming agreements to support international LPWAN use cases has hampered overall growth.

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Kaleido’s latest Mobile Connectivity Data Hub H2 2023 research found network sunsets, a shift towards network-access-based charging, and more efficient Remote SIM Provisioning via the eSIM IoT specification will smooth the path to broader LTE-M connectivity in the coming years.

Kaleido’s latest Connectivity Data Hub provides the latest historical and forecast projections for 5G, IoT verticals, eSIM, Satellite, LPWAN, Mobile Security & Fraud and Mobile Private LTE/5G Networks.

eSIM/iSIM Shipments to Reach 1.4 Billion in 2028

2024 is set to be a landmark year for eSIM, with initial eSIM IoT specification commercial deployments set to launch. Functionally, this offers improved and much-needed long-term flexibility over the lifecycle of such devices. In the smartphone market, eSIM and iSIM look set to gradually become de facto part of designs from around 2026. Combined, these factors will lead to a 21% CAGR in total eSIM/iSIM shipment growth between 2023 and 2028.

Kaleido’s Research Lead Steffen Sorrell commented: “Average annual eSIM or iSIM shipment growth is forecast to exceed 16% in all global regions between 2023 and 2028. Today, over 1,200 Remote SIM Provisioning platform instances have been deployed globally, with customer sustainability, flexibility, and efficiency demands providing the key drivers towards widespread adoption.”

Cellular IoT Connections to Reach 6.2 Billion in 2028

Kaleido anticipates that the global number of cellular IoT connections will grow to over 6.2 billion in 2028, up from 3.1 billion at the end of 2023. Notably, China continues to demonstrate considerable growth in connection volume, although Kaleido anticipates that most global regions will see a CAGR of over 20% during the 2023-2028 forecast period for IoT connection volumes and result in the addition of 1.5 billion cellular connections when China is excluded.

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About Kaleido Intelligence

Kaleido Intelligence is a specialist consulting and market research firm with a proven track record of delivering telecom research at the highest level. Kaleido Intelligence is the leading research company addressing mobile roaming and connectivity services in its entirety, covering industry-leading market insights, data forecasts, historical viewpoints, competitive intelligence and operator market surveys.

Research is led by expert industry analysts, each with significant experience delivering market research and insights that matter.

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